TRREB's October Market Watch is out, and the story is mixed. There were 5,603 home sales across the GTA, down 7.9% from last October, with an average price of $1,024,108 (-2.7%). New listings fell even faster, down 11.9% to 14,173. Then on October 28, the Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate to 2.50%, its first increase in a year. Here is what I am seeing in the four markets I work in every day.
GTA-Wide: The Numbers at a Glance
A 39.5% sales-to-new-listings ratio sits just under the 40% line that separates a buyer's market from a balanced one. Prices are still below last year, but with fewer new listings coming up, the market is quietly tightening. That is not a reason to rush. It is a reason to be prepared.
Mississauga: Median $855,000, Sold at 96.9% of Asking
487 homes sold in Mississauga in October at an average of about $920,000 across all property types. The median price was $855,000, down 1.2% year over year. Sales equalled 33% of 1,484 new listings, which is still buyer's market territory. Homes sold for a median 96.9% of asking, so there is room to negotiate. Condo inventory along the Hurontario corridor remains the biggest source of leverage for buyers; freehold homes in Erin Mills and Clarkson are holding up better.
Oakville: Median $1.3M, Sold at 96.2% of Asking
179 homes sold in Oakville at an average of about $1.42M and a median of $1,300,000. The median is up 12.1% from last October, but I would read that carefully: a month with more large detached sales lifts the median, and Oakville has a small sample. The more telling number is demand. Sales equalled just 27% of 661 new listings, and homes sold at a median 96.2% of asking. Strong areas like Glen Abbey and Joshua Creek still attract buyers, but they are not paying full ask.
Milton: Median $898,000, Sold at 97.3% of Asking
116 homes sold in Milton at an average of about $936,000 and a median of $898,000, down 6.1% from a year ago. Sales equalled 33% of 348 new listings, with homes selling at a median 97.3% of asking, the tightest spread of the four cities. Freehold townhouses remain the entry point for first-time buyers, and Milton still offers real value compared with Mississauga and Oakville.
Hamilton: Median $676,250, Sold at 97.2% of Asking
424 homes sold in Hamilton at an average of about $756,000 and a median of $676,250, down 4.5% year over year. This is the softest market in the group. Sales equalled only 24% of 1,760 new listings, which means plenty of choice for buyers and a real need for sellers to price accurately. For investors, Hamilton is still the lowest cost entry in the GTHA, and the fundamentals (McMaster, Mohawk, the waterfront pipeline) have not changed.
Pre-Construction Highlights
Builders are still competing for buyers, and incentives like capped development charges, flexible deposit structures, and upgrade credits are available on many projects. In Mississauga City Centre, I am watching fall and winter launches closely. In Milton, Mattamy and other Halton builders are building toward early 2027 releases. Pre-launch access is where the best pricing and unit selection happen, so getting on the list early matters. See my guides on Mississauga pre-construction and new homes in Milton.
Outlook for the Coming Month
- Buyers: Negotiating room still exists, especially in condos and in Hamilton. With listings thinning and rates rising, I would not wait for a bigger discount. Get pre-approved now.
- Sellers: Fewer competing listings help, but buyers are informed. Price to the data, prepare the home properly, and list before the holiday slowdown if you can.
- Investors: The rate hike squeezes cash flow, so run the numbers at today's rates. Pre-construction with a long closing timeline and Hamilton's lower entry price are the two angles I am discussing most.
- Watch: The Bank of Canada's next decision on December 9, and November sales data in early December.
The honest read: this is not a market to panic in or to wait out. If you want a straight, data-backed opinion on what these numbers mean for your situation, reach out. I reply within 24 hours, usually much sooner.
Sources: TRREB Market Watch, October 2026 (GTA figures and Bank of Canada rate). City-level figures: MLS® completed sales for October 2026 via BuyRealty.ca. City figures cover all property types and use median sold-to-ask; days on market by city are not yet published for October.